The way we live our lives online will make it easier for US presidential candidates to target their message
In 2008, Obama's campaign used online social networks
to not only get the word out, but also to track which issues groups of
voters cared about most. They built computer models of voting districts
that helped determine where to best focus money and volunteers during
last minute, on-the-ground campaigning.
Do you live in Ohio and tweet about your church? The
Republicans would like to have a word with you. Live in California and
post pictures of your Toyota Prius? Barack Obama would like you to start
a fundraising page.
The US presidential election in
November 2012 is likely to be the most data-intensive campaign in
history. The reason? We are sharing more information about ourselves -
our interests, social connections and online behaviour - than ever.
Savvy candidates can increasingly use this data to predict how we are
likely to vote, which of us to target and how best to reach us.
2012 could see campaigns bring this
kind of data-assisted decision-making to the level of individual voters.
Campaign strategists have long combined voter registration data with
consumer databases and census information to construct voter profiles
consisting of thousands of variables, such as the size of someone's
house, or what magazines they read. Now these profiles can be beefed-up
with real-time analysis of political sentiment via Twitter and blog
posts.
Detailed information about individual
voter interests and key political issues could also allow campaigns to
craft narrowly targeted messages. Do you tweet about your love for Battlestar Galactica?
Don't be surprised if the political messages you see online through
banner ads or sponsored links are tailored towards a candidate's stance
on science or space exploration.
Whether this kind of customised
campaigning comes across as charming or creepy remains to be seen. But
with about half of all Americans now on Facebook, voters will have to
get used to campaigns using their information in all kinds of ways.
Combine these huge data sets with sophisticated prediction algorithms
and 2012 could mark the rise of the ultimate political machine.
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